Trust in US Nuclear Policy: A Global Perspective

Trust in US Nuclear Policy: A Global Perspective

I often asked myself why the United States should expect other countries to trust us, especially when it comes to possessing nuclear technology and nuclear weapons. Well, here are some possibilities:

  • We were at the forefront of discovering the peaceful and military use of nuclear technology.
  • We have exported the technology to other countries for civilian uses, so they would rely on our support.
  • We have built an educational and technological infrastructure that supports other scientists and engineers learning how to implement the technology for peaceful and military uses.

These are reasons why we might expect them to trust us and our credibility. Is the United States messaging and leadership on nuclear technology on the world stage clear, consistent, and impartial?

Nuclear Countries

Only nine countries possess nuclear weapons: Russia, the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. Together, these nine nations hold a total inventory of approximately 12,000 to 13,000 nuclear warheads, with Russia and the USA owning almost 90% of them. Why do only nine countries possess nuclear weapons? 1

Due to international pressure, massive financial and technical hurdles, and the restraining influence of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)2, other countries have been limited in their approach to building a nuclear program, particularly weapons systems.3 Some countries have the background and resources to develop nuclear capabilities, but have entered into alliances with nuclear powers for protection as part of a deterrence strategy. Think of the 32 countries in NATO4, only three, the U.S., Britain, and France, possess nuclear weapons. They provide a shield of safety under NATO for the other 29 non-nuclear NATO countries.5

Is it problematic that a select club of nuclear countries hold the rest of the world hostage, especially since they are reticent to disarm?

Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty

The NPT has been the gold standard for reining in nuclear aspirations and controlling the number of weapons held worldwide. The NPT has 191 parties that signed on, including the five recognized Nuclear Weapon States – the U.S., Russia, U.K., France, and China. Most nations are party to the NPT as non-nuclear-weapon countries, while India, Pakistan, Israel, and South Sudan have never joined, and North Korea withdrew in 2003. 6 This group of recognized, non-recognized, and non-nuclear countries is a quagmire at best.

Since Israel has never joined the NPT, it is not constrained by the guarantees provided by the treaty. And yet, it has upwards of 400 nuclear weapons. For this reason alone, it is understandable that some Middle Eastern countries, like Iran, might want to develop them as a deterrence to Israel’s capability. Saudi Arabia launched the Saudi Nuclear Energy Project (SNAEP) in 2017 to explore nuclear power for peaceful purposes. 7 However, Riyadh has also declared that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, it will follow suit. This came from a statement of the Crown Prince in 2023.

What role could the United Nations play in formalizing a new way forward with a revised, more robust NPT designed to assure a nuclear weapon free future?

A Nuclear Iran

So now that the peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran to curtail the violence and destruction associated with the Iran War have reached a stumbling block, Americans might try to understand why Iran is insistent upon having the freedom to explore nuclear technology and weapons. “Israel has them, and we (Iran) don’t.” “We don’t like them, and they don’t like us.” A stalemate that makes honest, open negotiations difficult.

Iran’s government is a theocratic republic designed to pursue the ideology of destroying Israel. Iran’s Supreme Leaders, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRG), and their network of regional proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, and elsewhere have made that clear.  Israel is forced to be on the defensive; however, it possesses ample military technology and nuclear weapons to destroy the Middle East. And it is not a party to the NPT. This could be a cause for worry for Middle East countries.

The U.S., acting as Israel’s proxy or ally, demands that Iran give up all desire to explore nuclear technology of any sort. With other countries, the U.S. stance has often permitted civilian, peaceful use of nuclear technology, but with strict, long-term verification, intense monitoring, and severe restrictions on uranium enrichment capabilities. Concerning Iran, the U.S. demand is that it never acquire a nuclear weapon and agree to not enrich uranium, thereby preventing the development of a weapon of mass destruction. With respect to Iran’s developing civilian use of nuclear technology, the U.S. is open to the possibility, so long as enrichment of uranium in reactors occurs outside Iran. Finally, the U.S. does not appear ready to address the elephant in the room, the fear Iran has regarding Israel’s nuclear capability.

Task for the U.S.

For the U.S. to remain a credible global leader on the nuclear front, we need to be an open and honest partner in these conversations, shedding whatever biases cloud our judgment. With the expiration of the New START8,9 treaty in February 2026, the U.S. will now be challenged to remain a role model for disarming its nuclear stockpiles and brokering negotiations between other countries like Israel and Iran.

The U.S. credibility in the Middle East is tied to its perceived consistency. If the U.S. is seen as vague about its own treaty obligations, its leverage to prevent Iranian enrichment or to manage the “secret” of Israel’s nuclear status is jeopardized.

A question becomes: How does the U.S. enforce a “rules-based order” if it is no longer bound by the nuclear rules it helped develop since the end of WWII?

References:

  1. https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_arsenals
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  2. The Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty was signed in 1968 as a means to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. It was also designed to encourage disarming of nuclear weapons stockpiles. ↩︎
  3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons#:~:text=Critics%20argue%20that%20the%20NPT%20cannot%20stop,using%20nuclear%20reactors%20to%20produce%20nuclear%20weapons.
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  4. NATO is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. ↩︎
  5. NATO’s nuclear deterrence policy and forces. ↩︎
  6. https://saudipedia.com/en/saudi-national-atomic-energy-project-snaep ↩︎
  7. Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty was an agreement between the United States and Russia that put caps on the number of nuclear weapons each country could maintain. ↩︎
  8. https://www.state.gov/new-start-treaty ↩︎

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